Reading the Future of COVID-19
April 9, 2020
A robust data analytics tool, developed by University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), attempts to understand and project health care needs over the next few months as the nation and world combat COVID-19. The model, using data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, hospital capacities, number of ventilators, and ICU beds, examines future burdens on hospital systems.
According to this data, South Carolina’s date of maximum resource use will be April 24, and the state will likely see a peak of 14 deaths per day on April 25. IHME data predicts that South Carolina will not see a shortage of beds at the projected peak; rather, they believe there will be a total of 709 hospital beds and 145 ICU beds needed, with 4,679 hospital beds and 404 ICU beds available throughout the state. By Aug. 4, it is projected that there will have been 470 deaths statewide.
This information can help illuminate the burdens placed on health care systems and can be instrumental for governments as they respond to and attempt to predict the future impacts of COVID-19. The data model also assumes social distancing through May 2020. For more on your role in social distancing, see The Public Service of Staying Home.